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IB Economics · HL/SL model essay

Worked example: from an illustrative market with a negative production externality, calculate the welfare loss and the effect of a Pigouvian tax, then recommend a policy.

Paper 3, calculations and policy recommendation · IB HL · Command term: Calculate; Recommend

This IB Economics model essay is by the ETG IB Economics team, led by Mr Eugene Toh, who designs the in-house IB curriculum and writes the IB specific textbooks and workbooks used in class.

Original ETG worked example; figures are illustrative, not from any IB paper.

2.8.42.8.72.7.8SK-CALCSK-RECOMMEND
The model thesis in brief

In this ETG worked example a chemicals market has demand P = 60 - 0.5Q and private supply (MPC) P = 10 + 0.5Q, with a $20 per unit external cost. The free market settles at Q = 50, P = $35; the social optimum is Q = 30, P = $45; the welfare loss from over-production is $200.

A Pigouvian tax of $20 per unit, set equal to the marginal external cost, shifts supply up to the MSC line, moves output to the social optimum and raises $600 in revenue. The recommendation is to levy that tax and earmark the revenue, while watching for inelastic demand and measurement error.

Examiner's note: what reaches the top band

Paper 3 rewards method, not just the answer. This response writes each step as an equation with units, states the final value in bold, and never skips the algebra, which is exactly how the AO4 calculation marks are earned.

The diagram is carried in prose. MPC, MSC, the demand curve, the free-market point, the social optimum and the welfare-loss triangle are all described in words, in line with the no-diagram house style, with an optional draw note for revision.

The recommendation is justified from the numbers. The final part does not float free: it points back to the $200 welfare loss and the $600 of revenue, then weighs the tax against its information and equity limits before committing to a position.

Reading the scenario

Take an illustrative market for an industrial chemical whose production pollutes a river. All figures below are ETG teaching figures, not from any exam paper. The market demand and the firms' private supply are given by:

Price P is in dollars per tonne and quantity Q is in thousands of tonnes per year. Because the only spillover is on the cost side, marginal private benefit and marginal social benefit coincide along the demand curve, while the true marginal social cost lies $20 above the MPC.

Step 1: the free-market equilibrium

The unregulated market clears where demand meets MPC. Set the two expressions equal:

60 - 0.5Q = 10 + 0.5Q
60 - 10 = 0.5Q + 0.5Q
50 = 1Q, so Q = 50 thousand tonnes.

Substitute back into demand to find the price: P = 60 - 0.5(50) = 60 - 25 = $35 per tonne. So the free market produces 50 thousand tonnes at $35.

Step 2: the marginal social cost line and the social optimum

Add the $20 external cost to the MPC to get the marginal social cost:

MSC = MPC + external cost = (10 + 0.5Q) + 20 = 30 + 0.5Q.

The socially efficient output is where MSC meets demand (MSB), because there society's extra cost of the last unit just equals its extra benefit:

60 - 0.5Q = 30 + 0.5Q
60 - 30 = 1Q
30 = Q, so the social optimum is Q = 30 thousand tonnes.

The price consumers would pay at that output is P = 60 - 0.5(30) = 60 - 15 = $45 per tonne. The free market therefore over-produces by 50 - 30 = 20 thousand tonnes.

Step 3: the welfare loss from over-production

For every unit between the social optimum (Q = 30) and the free-market output (Q = 50), the marginal social cost exceeds the marginal social benefit, so each of those units subtracts from welfare. The total loss is the area of the triangle between the MSC curve and the demand curve over that range.

The base of the triangle is the range of over-production: 50 - 30 = 20 thousand tonnes. The height is the vertical gap between MSC and demand at the free-market output, Q = 50:

MSC at Q = 50: 30 + 0.5(50) = 30 + 25 = $55
Demand (MSB) at Q = 50: 60 - 0.5(50) = 60 - 25 = $35
Gap = 55 - 35 = $20 per tonne.

Welfare loss = 1/2 x base x height = 1/2 x 20 x 20 = $200 (in thousands, i.e. $200,000 per year). This is the money value of the harm the free market leaves uncorrected.

Step 4: the effect of a Pigouvian tax

A per-unit tax set equal to the marginal external cost internalises the externality. Here that tax is $20 per tonne. It raises the firms' effective marginal cost so that the after-tax supply curve becomes:

P = (10 + 0.5Q) + 20 = 30 + 0.5Q, which is exactly the MSC line.

The new market equilibrium is where this taxed supply meets demand, which is the social optimum already found: Q = 30 thousand tonnes at a consumer price of $45 per tonne. Producers receive $45 - $20 = $25 per tonne after handing the tax to the government.

Government revenue from the tax = tax per unit x quantity traded = $20 x 30 thousand = $600 (in thousands, i.e. $600,000 per year). The tax removes the $200,000 welfare loss and raises $600,000 that can be earmarked for river clean-up or compensation.

Recommendation

On these numbers the case for a $20 per tonne Pigouvian tax is strong, and I recommend it. It pushes output from 50 to the efficient 30 thousand tonnes, eliminates the $200,000 annual welfare loss, and turns the external harm into $600,000 of revenue that can fund the clean-up. Doing nothing leaves a real, recurring loss, so inaction is hard to defend.

Two cautions shape how I would implement it. First, the result depends on knowing the external cost is $20; if regulators over- or under-estimate it, the tax misses the optimum, so the rate should be reviewed as monitoring data improve. Second, if demand for the chemical is price inelastic, the tax will cut output less than this linear example suggests and will fall heavily on buyers, which can be regressive; the revenue should then be used to soften that burden. Where the external cost is hard to value or the total quantity of pollution matters most, a tradable-permit scheme that fixes the quantity may out-perform a tax. Subject to those checks, the tax is the efficient first choice here.

What a student should drawDraw an upward-sloping MPC supply curve P = 10 + 0.5Q and an MSC curve P = 30 + 0.5Q parallel and $20 above it, with one downward-sloping demand curve (MPB = MSB) P = 60 - 0.5Q. Mark the free-market point at Q = 50, P = 35 where MPC meets demand, and the social optimum at Q = 30, P = 45 where MSC meets demand. Shade the welfare-loss triangle between MSC and demand from Q = 30 to Q = 50. A $20 tax shifts MPC up onto the MSC line.
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Questions students ask

Are these official IB answers?

No. This is an original ETG worked example written to the IB markbands. It is not an IB publication, it reproduces no official mark scheme, and every figure is illustrative and invented for teaching, not taken from any IB paper.

How do you find the welfare loss from a negative production externality?

Find the free-market output where demand meets MPC, then the social optimum where demand meets MSC (MSC = MPC plus the external cost). The welfare loss is the triangle between MSC and demand over the range of over-production: one half times the base (the over-production) times the height (the MSC-to-demand gap at the free-market quantity). In this worked example that is 1/2 x 20 x 20 = $200 thousand.

Why set the Pigouvian tax equal to the external cost?

Setting the per-unit tax equal to the marginal external cost lifts private supply exactly onto the MSC curve, so the taxed market clears at the social optimum. In this example a $20 tax moves output from 50 to 30 thousand tonnes, removes the welfare loss and raises $600 thousand in revenue.

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