What came up versus what we flagged

What came up versus what we flagged

This page is the part of the forecast we cannot fake. After each A-Level GP sitting, we will line up what the paper actually asked against what these issue forecasts flagged, count the hits and the misses honestly, and leave the misses on the page. No quiet edits.

The first scorecard will land after the next A-Level GP examination. Until then, here is the standing promise and the way we will keep score, so you can hold us to it.

A "hit" means the paper set a question whose central issue we had flagged and argued here, in any wording. We will not claim a hit on a stretch. If we flagged "the responsibility of the scientist" and the paper asked about animal testing, that is a partial at best, and we will mark it as one.

A "miss" cuts both ways. A question on an issue we did not flag is a miss against us. An issue we flagged loudly that did not appear is also logged, because a forecast that only counts its wins is worthless. Both columns stay visible.

We will also publish the base rate. With eight questions on the paper and thirty issues flagged across eight themes, some overlap is expected by chance alone, and we will say so rather than dress up coincidence as foresight.

The standing scorecard